Investment Strategy — Staying Positive on Equities – “Dips are discounts, not detours.”
Ampersand Capital | Outlook
- De-escalation rally: With the Iran-US ceasefire holding and the Strait of Hormuz returning to near-normal traffic, the acute geopolitical risk premium that dominated May has unwound sharply — Brent crude has fallen roughly 20-23% from its war-time peak to ~$74-77, and the rupee has recovered to ~Rs.94.5/USD from a low of Rs.96.8.
- Inflation ticking up, but still contained: The RBI held the repo rate at 5.25% with a neutral stance. Headline CPI climbed to 3.93% in May (from 3.48% in April), inching toward the 4% target as food inflation firmed to 4.78%. With the RBI nudging up its FY27 inflation projection and El Niño clouding the monsoon outlook, food prices remain the key swing factor for the next policy review.
- Key monitorable: Durability of the Iran-US ceasefire and Hormuz traffic, Monsoon progress (Jul-Aug), August RBI MPC stance amid rising CPI, US Fed rate-hike probability, and Q1FY27 earnings season (Jul-Aug).